Ceasefire Declared "Over." Oil Jumps 5%, the Dow Sheds 577 Points.

The Ceasefire Cracks, and Wall Street Reprices Risk in a Hurry

Trump Says the Iran Ceasefire Is Over — Markets Move Fast

• Speaking at the NATO summit in Ankara, Turkey, President Trump said the memorandum of understanding between the U.S. and Iran was finished, adding "I don't want to deal with them anymore." His remarks followed a fresh round of U.S. strikes on Iranian targets overnight in response to attacks on commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz.
• The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell ▼ 1.09%, or 576.76 points, to close at 52,348.39 — its steepest one-day drop in weeks and a sharp reversal from Monday's record close above 53,000. The S&P 500 slipped ▼ 0.28% to 7,482.71. The market's initial reaction was sharper still — the S&P 500 and Dow were both down more than 1% at midday before paring some losses into the close, a sign investors aren't yet pricing in a full return to open conflict.
• The Nasdaq Composite bucked the broader slide, edging up ▲ 0.20% to 25,870.65 as large-cap technology names held firm even as the rest of the market retreated — a split that underscores how concentrated this year's gains have become.
• The U.S. also revoked the waiver that had allowed Iran to sell oil on global markets, while Tehran said it had targeted American military sites in Bahrain and Kuwait in response. The International Monetary Fund trimmed its 2026 global growth forecast to 3% from an earlier 3.1% estimate, citing the energy shock from the conflict, and now expects oil prices to rise nearly 32% this year.

Energy Wins, Materials and Travel Take the Hit

• Energy stocks were the session's clear standout as crude surged. Marathon Petroleum gained about 5%, Diamondback Energy, Occidental Petroleum, and ConocoPhillips all advanced, and Exxon Mobil and Chevron both moved higher as the sector was one of only two in the S&P 500 to close in the green.
• The materials sector logged its worst single-day performance in more than a year, falling close to 3% as higher input costs and renewed inflation worries hit industrial and chemical names particularly hard.
• Travel-linked stocks sold off as fuel costs rose: American Airlines dropped roughly 4%, United and Delta each fell around 2–2.5%, and cruise operators Carnival and Norwegian Cruise Line declined 3% or more.
• Chip stocks were mixed after Tuesday's rout: the broader semiconductor complex stabilized and even rose modestly, but Navitas Semiconductor tumbled roughly 9% after a competitor filed a patent-infringement lawsuit, and Intel fell more than 5%.

Where the Money Actually Went

• Penguin Solutions surged over 22% after a significant earnings beat, making it one of the strongest performers in the market with at least a $2 billion valuation on a day when most stocks were falling.
• SpaceX bucked the broader sell-off, rising modestly in early trading after tumbling more than 6.5% the prior session — a small rebound following its recent, closely watched Nasdaq-100 entry.
• Energy names led the S&P 500's advancers list as crude prices spiked. Investors rotated into producers and refiners as a hedge against further Middle East disruption, a mirror image of the pain in travel and consumer-discretionary names.
• Consumer-defensive stocks also held up better than the broad market, one of just two sectors to close in positive territory as investors favored steadier, less rate-sensitive names.

Fed Minutes Show a Hawkish Bias as Inflation Risk Comes Back Into Focus

• Minutes from the Federal Reserve's June meeting — the first under new Chair Kevin Warsh — were released Wednesday and showed policymakers still see upside inflation risks even as labor-market concerns have eased somewhat. The minutes reinforced a cautious, hold-steady posture rather than any near-term move toward cuts.
• The 10-year Treasury yield rose to roughly 4.59% as investors priced in the inflationary impact of higher energy costs. Some strategists now see the 10-year testing 4.65% to 4.8% if the conflict escalates further and oil keeps climbing.
• Gold fell for a fourth straight session, dropping close to 2% as investors continued unwinding safe-haven positioning built up earlier this year — even as the Iran conflict reignited, showing how much of the earlier geopolitical premium has already come out of the metal.
• Analysts flagged that next week's June CPI report (due July 14) will be closely watched. Cooling energy prices during the month itself should help keep the headline number contained, but year-over-year inflation is expected to stay uncomfortably close to 4%.

What to Watch Thursday

• Iran headlines remain the top risk. Trump has threatened further strikes, and any escalation or de-escalation overnight could move futures sharply before Thursday's open. Watch oil prices as the clearest real-time gauge of how investors are pricing the conflict.
• PepsiCo (PEP) earnings, Thursday. Investors will watch snack volumes, international sales, and margin pressure from both inflation and rising input costs — a read-through for consumer-staples resilience in a higher-energy-cost environment.
• June existing home sales, Thursday. A data point on housing-market health as mortgage rates stay elevated alongside the recent run-up in Treasury yields.
• Oil and the 10-year yield. Both jumped sharply Wednesday; sustained moves higher in either would pressure rate-sensitive equities, especially small caps and highly leveraged growth names.
• Second-quarter earnings season kicks off next week. Major U.S. banks begin reporting July 14 alongside the CPI print, with consensus expecting S&P 500 earnings growth near 22% year-over-year — a key test of whether fundamentals can offset the renewed geopolitical overhang.