30-Year Treasury Yield Hits Its Highest Level Since 2007 as Oil Climbs on Iran Tensions — Wall Street Dips Ahead of a Big-Box Retail Earnings Week

A Quiet Start to Retail Earnings Week as Bond Yields Steal the Spotlight

30-Year Treasury Yield Hits Its Highest Level Since 2007 as Oil Climbs on Iran Tensions

• The 30-year Treasury yield pushed to about 5.30% Monday, its highest level since 2007, as long-dated bonds sold off ahead of this week's heavy retail-earnings calendar and Wednesday's FOMC minutes.
• Brent crude climbed toward $88-$89 a barrel and WTI traded near $83, extending last week's advance as the U.S.-Iran standoff kept a geopolitical risk premium priced into oil.
• A Reuters poll found 94 of 104 economists expect the Federal Reserve to hold its benchmark rate at 3.50%-3.75% in September; traders have pushed the odds of a September rate cut down to under one-third.
• Major indexes slipped modestly in response: the S&P 500 fell ▼ 0.50% and the Dow lost ▼ 0.51%, pulling back from last week's record highs.

Big-Box Retail Earnings Take Center Stage This Week

• Home Depot reports before Tuesday's open, the first of a wave of big-box earnings that also includes Walmart, Target, and Lowe's later this week — a key read on back-to-school consumer spending.
• Energy was the session's standout sector as crude prices climbed on the Iran conflict, with oil and shipping-linked names among Monday's biggest gainers.
• Chip stocks were split: AMD rallied roughly ▲ 6.5% while Broadcom (AVGO) extended Friday's slide, down ▼ 5.9% on continued institutional selling.
• The AI-infrastructure trade stayed hot: HIVE Digital Technologies jumped after its BUZZ HPC unit signed a $350 million, five-year AI cloud-services agreement.

Biotech Deal-Making and AI Infrastructure Led Monday's Gainers

• OmniAb (OABI) led gainers, up ▲ 18%, after announcing a global collaboration and license agreement worth up to $370 million in milestones with Eli Lilly.
• argenx (ARGX) rose ▲ 10% on positive Phase 3 results for its Vyvgart treatment.
• HIVE Digital Technologies (HIVE) climbed ▲ 9% on its $350 million AI cloud deal, while SanDisk (SNDK) added ▲ 9%, extending a roughly 35% five-session surge on an improving memory-pricing outlook.
• AMD gained about ▲ 6.5% as chip stocks broadly attempted to stabilize after last week's weakness.

Dow Leads a Broad but Modest Pullback

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average led index declines, falling ▼ 0.51% to 53,459.78, while the S&P 500 eased ▼ 0.50% to 7,746.85 and the Nasdaq Composite slipped ▼ 0.31% to 26,646.32.
• The Russell 2000 fell ▼ 0.39% to 3,056.42, giving back a small piece of last week's ▲ 1.1% outperformance versus the large-cap benchmarks.
• The 10-year Treasury yield rose to roughly 4.68%, and the 30-year touched 5.30% — its highest level since 2007 — while gold held near $4,400-$4,470 an ounce, up about 9% this month.
• Monday's declines follow a mixed week: the S&P 500 gained about 0.36% and the Nasdaq added 0.14%, while the Dow fell roughly 0.56% between August 10 and 14.

What to Watch the Week of August 17

• Home Depot reports earnings Tuesday, August 18, before the opening bell — the first of this week's big-box retail results and an early read on consumer spending.
• Walmart, Target, and Lowe's report later this week, rounding out a heavy retail-earnings calendar that will shape views on the health of the U.S. consumer.
• The Fed's July FOMC minutes release Wednesday, with traders pricing under a one-in-three chance of a September rate cut.
• The 30-year Treasury yield near a 2007 high is worth watching — continued upward pressure could weigh on rate-sensitive sectors this week.
• Oil and the Strait of Hormuz remain the wildcard, with Brent near $88-$89 a barrel as the U.S.-Iran standoff continues.